Santa Fe Real Estate Market Update: Are Home Prices Rising or Falling?

The big question: Is the Santa Fe market heating up again or cooling off? Below is a breakdown of where things stand according to Sotheby’s International Realty’s most recent data, what the trends indicate, and what this means for buyers and sellers in Santa Fe.

📊 Key Market Metrics (Q3 2025, SIR Data)

Here are the headline figures from the SIR market update for Santa Fe (Single-Family Homes & Condos) for Q3 2025: marketupdates.sothebysrealty.com

Interpretation: Price hiccup minimal, days on market significantly longer, volume lower, inventory higher — a mix of signals pointing toward moderation rather than rapid growth.

🔍 What These Trends Suggest

Putting the SIR data into context, here’s what we can infer:

1. Prices are roughly flat / modestly up

With median price up only about 1% year-over-year, the major boom years appear to have passed — the market is more stable rather than skyrocketing.

2. Buyer leverage increasing

Longer days on market (59 vs maybe ~45 last year) + higher inventory (20% more homes listed) means buyers are getting more choices and more time to negotiate.

3. Sales volume down

With 17% fewer closings, it suggests either fewer sellers are willing to list, fewer buyers are jumping in, or both.

4. Inventory rising, making it more of a balanced market

A 20% increase in listings suggests supply is loosening relative to buyer demand — moving away from extreme seller’s-market conditions.

5. Segment and location variation likely

The aggregated numbers mask variation: high-end luxury or specific neighborhoods may behave differently than entry level or broader market. (Other reports show luxury segment may already be showing slight softness.)

💡 What This Means for Buyers & Sellers

For Buyers

  • Positive window: With inventory up and days on market longer, it’s a good time to shop — you have more options and more negotiation power than in earlier years.
  • Be selective: Since price growth is modest, condition, location and value matter more than “just get in now and profit later”.
  • Know your segment: If you’re going after luxury (over $1 M+) or prime neighborhoods (e.g., Tesuque, Las Campanas), the dynamics might differ (slower volume, more competition) so be strategic.

For Sellers

  • Price realistically: With only ~1% median price increase and more inventory, overpricing is riskier now than during a heated seller’s market.
  • Presentation & value matter more: Since buyers are not feeling panic to buy, strong staging, promoting unique features, and targeting the right buyer matters.
  • Expect more negotiation: With more supply and slower movement, flexibility may be required (closing cost credits, inspection issues, etc.).
  • Leverage your niche: If you’re in a strong sub-market (luxury, ultra-luxury, historic homes) you may still command premium value — but you’ll need to market accordingly.

🎯 Neighborhood & Segment Highlights (SIR Data)

SIR breaks down some specific community/price points in Q3 2025: marketupdates.sothebysrealty.com

  • Example: Historic Eastside (Santa Fe) – Median ~$1.64 m; Days on Market ~34; 17 sales.
  • Example: Las Campanas – Median ~$2.05 m; Days on Market ~66; 25 sales.
  • Example: Regions like “Northwest of City Limits” – Median ~$1.9 m; DOM ~97; 19 sales.

Key takeaway: In higher-price segments, inventory and time-to-sell are larger, sales counts fewer, and median prices vary significantly — reinforcing the idea that “luxury” is different.

🔮 Outlook & What to Watch

  • Interest rates: If mortgage rates decline, it could spur renewed demand and help absorb inventory.
  • Supply vs demand balance: If listings keep rising and buyer demand stays flat, pricing pressure could increase (or at least long-term appreciation may be muted).
  • Luxury/Second-home segment: Because Santa Fe draws many second-home/luxury buyers, global wealth shifts, tax/regulation changes or lifestyle migration trends will matter.
  • Local economic/regulatory factors: Land use, development restrictions, property tax changes could impact supply, desirability and thus pricing.
  • Seasonality and year-end trends: Santa Fe sees strong appeal in certain seasons; how the market behaves into Q4 and into 2026 will be telling.

✅ Bottom Line

According to Sotheby’s International Realty’s latest data for Santa Fe, the real estate market is stable and moderating rather than surging or crashing. Median prices are holding steady with a modest ~1% increase year over year, while rising inventory and longer days on market are shifting conditions toward a more balanced landscape.

For buyers, this means more negotiating power and more choice than in recent years. For sellers, it underscores the importance of strategic pricing, strong presentation, and working with an agent who knows how to position your home in today’s market.

✨ About Adrienne DeGuere, Sotheby’s International Realty – Santa Fe
I’m a licensed Realtor® specializing in Santa Fe’s luxury and relocation markets, with more than 128 successful transactions and a top-4% ranking among local agents. Whether you’re considering buying a home in one of Santa Fe’s iconic neighborhoods or selling a property for maximum return, I bring deep local expertise, strategic negotiation skills, and a proven track record of delivering results.

Thinking about your next move in Santa Fe? Contact me to talk through your goals and get a personalized strategy tailored to today’s market.